“All models are wrong, but some are useful” – George Box Reality is incredibly complex. To handle it and reduce the complexity, we create models that zoom in on aspects of how the world works. They are abstractions that simplify reality and make it easier to understand the world and avoid overwhelm. How good an abstraction is, is always measured by its utility. Imagine if when you wanted to buy a car, you had to say, “Honey, let’s go look at configurations of metals, polyester, and plastic....

This is an acronym I came across a lot in my studies. VUCA stands for volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. It’s used to describe the world we live in and was noted as the number one reason to why we need innovation. It’s also a useful reminder for any individual or organization to avoid overconfidence. The world is volatile. It moves unpredictably and doesn’t ever really trend in one direction for long....

If you want a successful and fulfilling life, you shouldn’t optimize for happiness. Instead, Richard Meadows argues that you should focus on increasing optionality. We think happiness is a state we can arrive at. However, happiness is always relative, and we have both external and internal reference points that guide our happiness level. Because of the hedonic treadmill, you’ll need newer and stronger “happiness kicks” to get to the same level of happiness than before....

We often have an inflated opinion of our understanding of reality. We think we know how things work. But as Philip Tetlock showed elegantly in his research, even experts are typically not much more accurate than anyone taking random guesses. This is bad because if your understanding of reality is inaccurate, you’ll inevitably make some horrible decisions in your life. The main reason for our false understanding seems to be confirmation bias....

Will China or India overpower the West in the future and take the lead? Ian Morris sets out to answer this question. By looking into the past, he’s convinced that we can understand how western dominion came about. He’s also convinced that by understanding this, we’re able to predict what comes next. In essence, biology and sociology tell us that humans are mostly the same. All have the same nature and need energy to survive....