Your circle of competence describes an area of knowledge where you have deep knowledge and an accurate understanding of reality. This means you know the rules and principles governing it. You have extensive practical experience in it. You know most of what there is to know, what you don’t know, and even what is knowable and unknowable. Building up your circle of competence takes a great deal of deliberate practice–meaning experience and reflection....
Framing is a concept from the social sciences, specifically from psychology and behavioral economics. It describes how we interpret things differently depending on how they’re presented. Even if the different presentation has nothing to do with the matter at hand. Understanding this concept will help you see reality as it is. It can also protect you against manipulation and in turn, will make you more persuasive. The concept is founded on how our brains deal with external stimuli....
Complex systems are unpredictable and don’t always work as anticipated. There are too many variables and interdependencies to fully understand them. Any input might change the system and some might lead to large unintended consequences. In some cases, the rules of the system might even change completely. A margin of safety acts like insurance against this unpredictability. There is an expected outcome to every action. A margin of safety is the buffer you add on top of the expected outcome in case you are wrong....
Systems are everywhere. A system is “a set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network” (definition by Oxford Languages). Your hiring process, marketing, sales, and the whole business are all systems. So is how you date, how you stay healthy, etc. Feedback loops are a fundamental concept of system theory. Feedback is information communicated in response to an action. When the output of a system becomes information that affects its behavior, we have a feedback loop at hand....
What are the chances of a specific outcome occurring? That is the leading question of probabilistic thinking. It’s a mathematical concept that defines the field of statistics. But it applies to every field that includes some measure of uncertainty. It’s a great tool for decision-making and any type of risk management. Probabilistic thinking helps you to better forecast the future. From this point onwards, the future is a collection of possible scenarios, but not all of them are equally likely to occur....