Essays

I’m on a quest to find profitable micro SaaS ideas. Validation is hard and messy and while I haven’t hit gold yet, I’m reflecting and improving on the process to increase my velocity with this project. To that end, let me share a recent journey of validating a SaaS idea in the product analytics space. Ideas on paper It all started with an idea. I sat down for some grueling minutes and just punched out a few micro SaaS ideas that came to mind. As with the good part of Instagram, there is no filter at this point. ...

Making decisions is hard and I found decision-making skills challenging to practice. One exercise that I’m currently exploring is the deliberate use of mental models to analyze case studies. This one is about the article “Like knocking down the Eiffel tower, battle to save historic Prague bridge“. Summary of the main points The Vyšehrad bridge in Prague is facing demolition due to a plan from Czech Railways to replace it with a modern structure. This has caused backlash from local campaigners, the Prague city council, and a petition with over 6,000 signatures. The Czech transport minister has called a special meeting of bridge engineers and the railway administration to find a solution. Critics of the demolition point out that the bridge can be repaired and that doing so is the more environmentally friendly option. It also would preserve the bridge as a valuable cultural and historical site. The railway administration says that the repairs are way too expensive and wouldn’t allow for an increase in traffic. It also would only extend the lifetime by several decades. Analysis I’m only going based on this one small article here. I don’t assume that I know anything about this topic outside of the outlined facts in the article. My goal is, to evaluate the current state of the discussion and decide on a path forward if I’d be the decision-maker in this issue. ...

This post is a short analysis of a history article. My goal was to practically apply mental models in order to improve my thinking. Question to answer: What led to the Mayan’s downfall? Article Summary The Mayan Empire was centered in the tropical lowlands of what is now Guatemala, and reached the peak of its power and influence around the sixth century A.D. Unlike other scattered Indigenous populations of Mesoamerica, the Maya were centered in one geographical block and remained relatively secure from invasion by other Mesoamerican peoples. They excelled in agriculture, pottery, writing, calendars, and mathematics, and left behind impressive architecture and artwork. They worshiped gods related to nature, and performed elaborate religious ceremonies. At the top of Maya society were the kings, or “kuhul ajaw” (holy lords), who claimed to be related to gods and followed a hereditary succession. By A.D. 900, the Maya had largely abandoned their great stone cities and scholars have debated what caused this decline. The downfall of the Maya in the southern lowlands may have been caused by a combination of overpopulation and overuse of the land, endemic warfare and drought. Analysis To determine what led to the downfall of the Maya, it’s a good starting point to invert the question and find the fundamental building blocks that led to their success. There are three factors behind the Maya’s power: ...

All life is problem-solving. – Karl Popper To create value for someone, to make progress with anything usually means solving problems. You want to achieve a goal, but unfortunately, there are obstacles in your way that you need to resolve to get there. At any one point in time, you probably have a full to-do list of problems that never empties. New items appear with every progress you make. When you’ve got limited resources to do something, it’s more important to do the right things instead of doing things well. So too with problem-solving. It’s more important to solve the right problem than to solve it well because the effort put in solving the wrong problem is wasted. Unfortunately, we’re terrible at choosing the right problems to solve. ...

We often have an inflated opinion of our understanding of reality. We think we know how things work. But as Philip Tetlock showed elegantly in his research, even experts are typically not much more accurate than anyone taking random guesses. This is bad because if your understanding of reality is inaccurate, you’ll inevitably make some horrible decisions in your life. The main reason for our false understanding seems to be confirmation bias. Let’s say you make a prediction: ”Paul and Sarah will definitely get together”. Now if Paul and Sarah don’t get together, you’ll either find a nice excuse why you’re wrong, ”well, I couldn’t have known about X, and that changed everything”, or you’ll just slowly forget that you were wrong over time. It’s not pleasant being wrong, so why should you keep reminding yourself of it? If your prediction about Paul and Sarah is right, you’ll say that you knew it all along and congratulate yourself on your profound understanding of human nature. ...